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Interactions Between Salmon, Ecosystems, and Climate: From Mechanisms to Predictive Models

Interactions Between Salmon, Ecosystems, and Climate:

From Mechanisms to Predictive Models

May 16–17, 2026

Background

The North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (NPAFC) developed and approved a new Science Plan during the 2023 annual meeting. The 2023–2027 Science Plan builds on previous international collaborative research efforts, including work for the International Year of the Salmon. The main goal of the 2023–2027 science plan is to “Establish a research framework to develop a mechanistic understanding of the effects of a changing climate on salmon abundance and distribution trends in the North Pacific Ocean.” The research objectives are as follows:

  1. Improve knowledge of the relative biomass, distribution, migration, and fitness of Pacific salmon in the ocean (Present Knowledge);
  2. Understand causes and anticipate changes in the production of Pacific salmon and the marine ecosystems producing them (Forward Action).

In addition to the 2023–2027 science plan, the Basin-scale Events and Coastal Impacts (BECI) project is currently under active development (https://beci.info/), which also builds in part on achievements during the International Year of the Salmon project and has been shaped with NPAFC's interest in climate impacts on Pacific salmon. The BECI project aims to establish a North Pacific Ocean Knowledge Network that works toward integrating climate, oceanographic, ecological, biological, socioeconomic, and traditional knowledge across national and disciplinary boundaries. BECI plans to focus initially on Pacific salmon as an exemplar species, then expand to other commercially and ecologically important transboundary species. The knowledge network seeks to:

  1. Connect diverse data sources on ocean conditions and climate impacts throughout the North Pacific basin;
  2. Transform fragmented information into synthesized, actionable knowledge; and
  3. Deliver timely, accessible insights to support climate-informed decision making.

The research priorities outlined in the NPAFC 2023–2027 Science Plan and the BECI project underscore the need for a Second NPAFC Science Workshop to synthesize findings, address mechanistic knowledge gaps, and optimize collaborative frameworks. Such a workshop would enable critical evaluation of progress on key objectives—including salmon biomass dynamics, climate-driven distribution shifts, and ecosystem productivity—while fostering integration across oceanographic, ecological, and fisheries datasets. By consolidating basin-scale research efforts and advancing methodological standardization, the workshop would directly enhance the North Pacific Ocean Knowledge Network, ensuring robust, interdisciplinary science to predict and mitigate climate impacts on Pacific salmon. Given the accelerating pace of environmental change, this workshop represents a necessary step toward refining hypotheses, aligning international research agendas, and strengthening the empirical foundation for sustainable management.

Workshop Objectives

  • Advance mechanistic understanding of climate-driven changes in Pacific salmon abundance and distribution.
  • Improve synthesis and interoperability of multidisciplinary data for the North Pacific Ocean Knowledge Network.
  • Identify critical knowledge gaps and prioritize research to forecast salmon responses under future climate scenarios.