Topic Sessions

Topic 1. Linking climate-ocean variability to salmon population dynamics

Outcome: The relative contributions of natural environmental variability and anthropogenic factors on Pacific salmon distribution and abundance are quantified and integrated into predictive models for future habitat and productivity shifts.

There are multiple and complex reactions of Pacific salmon populations across the North Pacific to environmental changes: shifts in marine carrying capacity and thermal habitats, seasonal redistribution (including potential Arctic expansion), and increasingly extreme interannual fluctuations in run strength. These changes reflect both direct climate impacts (e.g., ocean warming, altered prey fields) and cumulative anthropogenic stressors. Recent events—including record-high and record-low returns of key stocks occurring in adjacent years—highlight the urgent need to: (1) identify threshold mechanisms driving high-amplitude variability; (2) disentangle climate signals from intrinsic population dynamics, (3) develop models that can project both gradual trends and extreme fluctuations. Understanding these dynamics will improve forecasts of economic and ecological risks, particularly for fisheries facing increasingly unpredictable interannual variability.

Sub-sessions

Topic 2. Data integration frameworks: harmonizing oceanographic, ecological, and fisheries datasets (Tools, standards, and case studies for cross-disciplinary synthesis)

Outcome: Agreement on core metadata standards and interoperability protocols for sharing oceanographic, ecological, and fisheries datasets is achieved.

Pacific salmon research and management depend on diverse datasets, including oceanographic conditions, ecosystem indicators, and fisheries-dependent/independent data. However, these datasets often exist in disparate formats, with inconsistent metadata, spatial/temporal resolutions, and access protocols. This fragmentation hinders the ability to (a) conduct comprehensive, basin-scale analyses of climate-salmon interactions, (b) validate mechanistic models linking environmental change to salmon productivity, and (c) support timely, science-based decision-making under climate uncertainty. Developing robust techniques to collate historical datasets, standardize modern data collection methods, and demonstrate successful multi-dataset integration through case studies is essential to overcome fragmentation, maximize the value of existing data, and build a unified knowledge base for addressing climate-driven challenges in Pacific salmon conservation and management.

Sub-sessions

Topic 3. Identify critical knowledge gaps and prioritize research to forecast salmon responses under future climate scenarios

Outcome: A prioritized list of critical knowledge gaps and practical solutions to address them, including thresholds for salmon resilience, key uncertainties in forecasting models, recommended strategies.

Despite decades of extensive research by NPAFC countries, critical uncertainties persist regarding Pacific salmon dynamics, including whether winter constitutes a survival bottleneck, the drivers behind declining age-at-maturity and body size (environmental stress vs. evolutionary adaptation), and the extent of inter/intraspecific competition in changing ecosystems. These unresolved questions stem from contradictory hypotheses, monitoring gaps (particularly in winter), and inconsistent evidence across studies, hampering science-based management decisions. This workshop will prioritize these knowledge gaps and develop targeted research strategies—including experimental studies, synthetic data analyses, and emerging technologies—to transform speculation into evidence-based thresholds for conservation and fisheries management, ensuring NPAFC's science can address these pressing challenges in a rapidly changing North Pacific.